El Niño is a climate phenomenon known to affect our planet’s atmospheric currents. Historically, it has not been a good sign for the populations affected… It intensifies monsoons and droughts and significantly impacts harvests—and thus food prices. And according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it could peak this winter, stronger than ever. But what impact will it have on France? Are we heading toward a particularly freezing winter, as is being reported everywhere? We’ll explain.
What impact will El Niño really have on France’s weather this winter?
Meteorologists are certain: El Niño is indeed back, and it will be one of the strongest ever observed in the past 1,000 years. It is expected to peak this winter and should have a major impact on the Pacific regions. But contrary to what one might think, this natural phenomenon does not directly influence European temperatures. Only French Polynesia and New Caledonia will likely be the most affected by these weather changes!
This fall, experts at Météo-France are currently forecasting a mild spell for France. Indeed , September continues to bring us fairly pleasant temperatures that are above seasonal norms. According to all the scenarios studied by experts, this trend could continue into October and November, with high-pressure conditions particularly conducive to mild temperatures. Humidity is also expected to be a factor, with likely showers in southern and western France—though El Niño isn’t necessarily the cause of these disturbances.
Finally, be wary of the sometimes highly alarmist forecasts circulating on social media. Météo-France is clear: it is currently impossible to accurately predict the temperatures expected for this winter. These are possible trends, which can be established up to three months before the projected period, but their reliability at such a distant timeframe should be taken with a grain of salt. One thing is certain: with the global warming we’re experiencing, winters are likely to become increasingly mild.